My opinion of this week(645):
The night of the change
Last Sunday was the voting date of general election for the House of
Representative. The voting usually starts at 7 o'clock in the morning
and ends at 8 pm all over the country. It usually takes two to three
hours or more to count ballots to get the result. Ballots counting is
very fast and exact that is very good phase of political system in Japan.
Many people in Japan eagerly waited for that night for long time in the
past one year or more and must have expected to see a big change would
happened in this general election. There have never been such big
expectation for the change of power in any of those general election
made in the past for fifty years history of Japanese politics.
And that change came true for sure, people was excited to see the land
slide victory of Democratic Party of Japan by getting 308 seats at the
House of Representative by defeating their political opponents Liberal
Democratic Party. LDP got only 119 seats in this election by loosing
their ruling position that they monopolized many years. The change surely
happened too in this country. I am one of such men who have waited to
see the change for many years.
There have already existed the forecast of such landslide victory of
DPJ over LDP made by several mass media. Many forecasted such result saying
DPJ would gain 300 seats at least and 320 seats or more would be possible.
I did not believe it 100% but expected that that would really happened on
that night. Many people must have been the same way except those people
of ruling fronts and their supporters. Most of those people of ruling
fronts might have thought that LDP could gain about 150 seats even in the
worst case. But the adverse wind against ruling parties was much stronger
than their thought and thought of people of anti ruling parties including
myself.
That was not the adverse wind but was big crustal change of earth as
Yukio Hatoyama, Representative of DPJ referred at the last stage of the
general election.
NHK news show on the election started 7:50 pm and the news caster just
reported the facts that ballot was about to end at 8:00 pm. I was very
anxious to hear the first word that news caster would say in few minutes
later at that moment. I anticipated the statement and was almost sure
about what he would say.
The moment came at last at 8:00 pm. The caster reported overall NHK's
forecast about the general election. He said NHK forecasted that DPJ would
gain 300 seats at least and they could win more seats as the result of exit
poll research. That was amazing research indeed. There existed no ballot
counting at that moment. Several other TV stations made the same kind of
report in accordance with their exit poll of the same kind. The land slide
defeat of ruling parties was reported in the same manner.
Interviews for winners and looser started ten minutes later. Some candidates
who won in the election stared haling their victories under zero ballot
counting.
I was very happy to see some of those scenes in TV but was quite impressed
with how exact all of those research made by mass media including newspapers
and TV stations. Yes, those mass media have done a good job to forecast
such result. But that is not the point I was impressed with.
The whole point was the strength of mind of people for the change. I am
very confident and happy to say that people of Japan have made a good
decision making in this election. This is one of very important epoch
making happenings in Japanese politics. The change has happened for sure.
People are looking forward to seeing many of new phenomena in politics after
the birth of Hatoyama cabinet on September 16.
2009/9/5
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(646):
Meaning of tri-Party coalition
As a results of general election made on August 30, Democratic Party of Japan
won land slide victory over LDP Komei New Party coalition. The DPJ got majority
seats at the Lower House by themselves. But the party holds less than half
seats at the Upper House. They need another 10 seats or so at the Upper House
to get majority votes. That's why DPJ need a coalition with two minor parties
SDP (Social Democratic Party) and PNP (People's New Party) to get majority
vote at the Upper House.
After a kind of long and difficult negotiation, three parties finally
agreed on the coalition on Wednesday. DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama, SDP head
Mizuho Fukushima and People's New Party (PNP) chief Shizuka Kamei signed the
coalition agreement in a meeting at the Diet on Wednesday evening laying the
groundwork for the launch of the new administration on Sept. 16.
The coalition government will set up a panel of key Cabinet ministers
representing the three parties to coordinate policies and refer their
decisions to a Cabinet meeting of all ministers for approval, according to
the basic agreement to form a coalition administration.
The three parties also signed a 10-point policy agreement that calls for a
review of U.S. bases in Japan and revisions to the Japan-U.S. Status-of-
Forces Agreement. The difference of policies on diplomatic and defense issues
between DPJ and SDP was the biggest obstacle to start coalition.
Social Democrats insisted that the policy agreement should clearly state that
the new administration will try to withdraw Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF)
troops from the Indian Ocean, where they are refueling U.S. and other forces
engaged in the war against terror, without extending the period for the
mission, as set by relevant legislation.the DPJ initially expressed a
reluctance to comply.
Katuya Okada secretary general of DPJ finally compromised in several ways
with the SDP over these policies, breaking the deadlock for forming a
coalition government. SDP accepted DPJ's compromise and agreed to go ahead
for coalition.
There are many concerns about the agreement among analysts at this time.
Political analyst Hideake Kase said : "This agreement is like an attempt to
mix oil and water, and a conflict of interest is highly likely to take place
under such a fragile partnership."
There exists a lot of concerns and criticisms on this coalition agreement
even from supporters of DPJ. But many other analysts are rather optimistic
about this move. They expects three parties will work together more closely
under the coalition framework once it starts. It is expected that stance of
SDP on foreign and defense policies will become more realistic in many ways.
I strongly support this idea.
Foreign and defense policies are just one or two concerns. There exists a
number of key issues such as employment, social securities, medical cares,
postal privatization so and so forth that the coalition work together to
attain some big fruits which have not been fulfilled by the former coalition
front. The difference in foreign policies between two parties will be worked
out in many ways while they attain many of such achievement. They will
learn more about the meaning of compromise rather than principle that is
necessary not for their party but for the people.
In this sense, I will strongly appreciate the stance of compromise shown by
DPJ at this time by showing to two minor parties. This is the good start
for establishing new political leadership by DPJ in next four years at least.
2009/9/12
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(647):
Hatoyama cabinet has made a good start
The support rate for Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama is 74.3% according to
recent Jijitushin survey. This is the second high support rate for
cabinet next to Koizumi Cabinet four years ago. This high rate is a kind
of gratuity rate for new born administration which is seen generally
everywhere in the world . Such high rate was expected beforehand because
it is the result of such historic landslide victory of Democratic Party of
Japan over ruling Liberal Democratic Party in August 30 general election.
The most important question for ruling fronts is how long such high rate
last from now on. Whether or not Hatoyama Cabinet can attain their
manifests for people depends on the supporting rate itself. If the rate
goes down to some disapproval level, Hatoyama cabinet may face to
resignation.
As to this support rate, I am rather optimistic about it as far as
Hatoyama Cabinet is concerned. Although it is impossible to maintain
such high rate as 70%, they may keep 50% rate at least. Even 40% may be
permissible to maintain administrative position.
The reason for such optimism is rather simple. The first two years for
the new administration is the period of finding out collection of pus
piled up by past LDP and Komei New Party ruling fronts. In order to make
change, new ruling fronts must correct first many of misadministrative
actions conducted by old regime. People will see many of such instances at
first in one or two years under new administration.
Since the birth of Hatoyama Cabinet, we see many of such changes. Seiji
Maehara, new Minister of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport
and Tourism declared to stop Yanba Dam project. Akira Nagatuma, Minister
of Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said he would abolish medical
system for aged people and revive special assistance scheme for single
mother and her children. All of those measures are just reversal for
LDP policies in the past.
Those are just a few examples. There will be hundreds of such revisal
measures coming in next one year or two under Hatoyama Cabinet. People
will agree to make such change happen.
The most recent and important change is being observed at process of
correcting supplementary budget prepared by Aso Canibet while they
were in power. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama declared yesterday that
they would stop execution of some parts of supplementary budget and
some four trillion yen or so will be created, and such fund will be used
to conducts several manifests promised at the last election. Four
trillion yen or is a big money and a lot more money may be created if
the change of power happened earlier. People might have been surprised
to see that fact.
The more fundamental change for annual budget formation for next year
is starting now. Hatoyama Cabinet declared to abolish Administrative
Vice Minister Meeting that was the de fact top decision making
organization to create national budget. National budgets have been
made at each ministries in charge. They have been compiled up by
Ministry of Finance and total budgets have been coordinated by Vice
Minister Meeting to present to the cabinet in power at that moment.
Most cabinets in power have accepted the budget in principle coordinated
by Vice Minister Meeting as they are without any virtual correction or
amendment. Such process of budget preparation governed by bureaucrats
has continued over 100 years since Meiji era.
Hatoyama Cabinet of DPJ has finally made such change. Annual budget
will be made by the leadership of cabinet members. National Strategy
Board head by Naoto Kan was newly created to make total coordination
to make national budget.
All of those process are entirely new for people of Japan and lawmakers
and bureaucrats. People voted for DPJ to make change happen in the last
election. But they did not necessarily understand manifests of DPJ and
meaning of debureaucratization asserted by DPJ during the election
campaign.
But people start now learning meaning of DPJ's manifests and
debureaucratization by wathcing and reading news about them everydays.
They may learn more and will continue to support DPJ and Hatoyama
Cabinets for next three or four years. That is my big hope and I am
rather optimistic about it as I stated above.
Needless to say, this is the only way for this country to realize the
change.
2009/9/19
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(648)F
25% percent greenhouse gas cut won a big praise
That was the first time that I had heard the speech of Yukio Hatoyama,
Prime Minster of Japan in English. That was very good indeed. Many
people in Japan were also surprised to hear his excellent speech. But
It is quite natural for him to perform such high performance based on
the fact that he is a doctor of philosophy in technology at Stanford
University.
Well, the value of his speech at UN derives from the contents rather
than language he used. He reiterated again Japan's pledge to aim to
cut back on greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by 2020 from 1990
level. His declaration won a big praise from many top leaders from
world who attended U.N. summit on climate change on Thursday.
His speech got big claps when he finished his speech. It was a very
frank and outspoken appreciation from attendants. President Barak Obama
made a speech on the same topic prior to Hatoyama. While Obama stressed
the importance of the issue about greenhouse gas emissions and the change
of stance of his administration from Bush administration stressing more
aggressive approach of his country to cut back CO2 gas in coming era.
He declared that his administration would make utmost effort for coming
COP15 meeting in Denmark but he did not make any mention about concrete
numbers of target to cut CO2 gas in his speech. That seemed to create
some a kind of disappointment among attendants of U.N.
In along with US, China is another big CO2 gas emission country. Hu Jintao
secretary of general of China Communist Party who also attended U.N. did
not also mention anything concrete about greenhouse gas emission cut. China
has been negative on this issue in principle. China and India that are
making a great economic growth these days insist that warm-up of earth
is responsibility of advanced countries. China and India insist that
developed countries should pay their cost first for earth warm-up. It
is natural that advanced EU countries, US and Japan should reduce CO2 gas
much more higher rate than developing countries. I don't agree with that
statement.
Firstly, China and India are not developing countries any more. China is
now going to be second largest economic country in the world next to US.
Regardless the argument whether or not China is developed or developing
countries, my personal opinion is that even developing countries are
responsible to share the reduction of CO2 in the same manner as the
developed countries although that may not be equal basis, of course. Those
developing countries including China , India and many big developing
countries are making fast economic growth owing to the infra structure
created by developed countries. Those developing countries are also
responsible for paying the cost to protect warm-up of earth in this
respect.
EU and Japan are requested to make much more effort to push US and China
to reduce CO2 gas emissions for coming COP15 meeting in Denmark. Hatoyama's
speech at this time is greatly appreciated in this respect as praised by
French President Sarkozy.
While Prime Minister Hatoyama got such a big praise in international society,
the appreciation about manifest of his and Democratic Party of Japan in Japan
starts from now. It seems supporting rate from people and mass media
are generally good as far as I observe various sources are concerned. But
there exist a number of severe reactions from industrial worlds that produce
a lot of CO2 gas. They casted doubt why Prime Minister of Japan declared
such a high goal without getting any internal consensus especially from
business firms. They insist that such high target would provide a lot of
difficulties for the life of Japanese people and management of business
enterprises.
Is this true? May be, may be not according to several economists and critics.
Many of those people including myself, their views on this issue are more
optimistic. They say that all of those reduction efforts will create
various new business frontiers rather than creating some minus effects in
total. Increase of a number of eco-products such as hybrid cars, solar panels,
fluid batteries, etc. will create a new market and new employments.
Such move was referred by the green new deal advocated by Barak Obama. Japan
is the country that are very capable of conducting the new deal projects in
many respects.
We look forward to hearing about this new deals from Prime Minister Yukio
Hatoyama and to seeing various new measures to attain the target under
DPJ administration from now on. It's really a big challenge but worth
challenging.
2009/9/26
Tadashi HAYASE
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