My opinion of this week(601):
\2 trillion benefits payments is nothing but pork-barrel spending
Prime Minister Taro Aso announced his intention Thursday to postpone dissolving
the Lower House and calling a snap election.
Prime Minister Taro Aso's desire to address the global financial crisis appears to be
why a snap election won't be called anytime soon, but political analysts
have another take: He just wants to avoid election for he knows that it is a
losing battle.
To cope with the situation Prime Minister Taro Aso announced a fresh stimulus
package Thursday that includes about \2 trillion in benefits payments to
households, expressway toll cuts and record tax breaks on home loans. While
ruling fronts appreciate the new measures, others are mostly very skeptical.
Some critics say ruling the Liberal Democratic Party, and its coalition partner,New
Komeito,are trying to woo voters with cash benefits in the runup to a
general election. The most recent issue of Syukan Asahi, one of the popular
weekly magazine criticized that that measure is to intend buy votes from
poor people.
Yukio Hatoyama, Secretary General of Democratic Party of Japan criticized
that \2 trillion benefits payments is nothing but pork-barrel spending. I
agree with his comment. Similar measures were adopted in 1999, when the
government spent around \700 billion to distribute coupons to households with
children and pensioners. Municipal governments gave out coupons worth \20,000
to each recipient. There was no effective result attained from that measure at
that time.
Many economists doubt about the fact that the measures at this time will be
effective . It is expected that average households will receive \60,000 or
so by this measure, but there is no guarantee that household will spend that
money as some kind of consumption. Although they are spend as Aso expects,
the effect of such consumption is just a kind of temporal one at any rate.
The economic stimulus effects of the package are extremely limited," said
several economists calling the new package too little, too late. They noted
that the Japanese economy is largely dependent on overseas demand, which is
declining due to the global financial turmoil. In the middle to long term,
it is imperative that the economy be driven largely by domestic demand that
last longer time , and some basic economic structural reforms will be
necessary for any economic measures to work effectively.
In an unusual move, Aso also set out a timeline for hiking the consumption tax,
saying he wants it raised "in three years' time." This is to avoid criticism
against such extraordinary spending by government and to show the source of
fund for such spending. Aso indicated major source of such temporary spending
will come from so called 'buried fund' in special finance accounts different
from general financial accounts in the country. He said it will be necessary
to increase consumption tax to 10% level or so in order to long term need to
improve bad financial situation of this country.
It is another gesture to get some popular support from electorates in Japan.
He seemed to stress the point that ruling parties are different from
Democratic Party of Japan that mention anything about the possible increase
of consumption tax to fund necessary money to execute various policies. The
ruling parties are in a responsible position to execute realistic policies
while DPJ are not responsible at all without saying any thing about possible
increase of consumption tax in near future to fund money.
Aso's intention is very obvious here as well. He will not be there any more
after three years. It is a same tactic which Junichiro Koizumi, the then
prime minister took when he was in that position. He indicated the necessity
to increase of consumption tax in some future time but he never say that is
to be done while he was in that position. How smart Aso is by saying such
a casual excuse ! Or is he really smart as Prime Minister of Japan ? I
don't think so.
I believe Japanese people are not so primitive enough to accept such
transparent lie of the Prime Minister.
2008/11/1
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(602)
America has selected a change, Japan is still in status quo
Victory of Barack Obama has been elected to the next President of US
as forecasted before. But this is the result of the dramatic change
happened a month ago. Provided that the monetary crisis had not happened
in US at that time , John Mccain might have been elected to the President
of the US instead of Barak Obama. The chance was fifty to fifty as a matter
of fact. Many American electrates did not decided yet at that time about
which candidates they should choose.
This was especially true with white voters. Different from black voters,
white people were still wandering around about which to choose untill that
money crisis had happened a month ago. Long history of discrimination
against black people is not such a simple issue. Civil Right movement has
not really finished yet in many ways in the US.
Barak Obama, the first black African root man has been selected to the
top leader of the country in that social environment. This is the first
and probably the most important "change" known as the key word for
Barak Obama's election campaign. Barak Obama has never used that word in
connection with racial issue during election campaign, but it is very
obvious that he has kept this in mind whenever he used that word in his
speeches.
The second change is concerned with the change of basic economic system
of the country. Obama's America seems to change market oriented economy to
control economy. American economy has been developed and kept No.1 position
in the world based on this principle of market economy.
Obama's manifest during election campaign especially on economic policies
seemed to be somewhat different from those market economy oriented principles.
He was criticized many times by the opponent that his economic policies are
something like that of socialists. He promissed to make a big tax reduction
for low income group of people if he is elected to the president.
Principle of market economy and free copetition have been a basic guideline
of US economy and the way of life of American people. The whole world
follow to that US model including Japan.
But sudden money crisis happened a month ago started to crash not only US
economy but also the whole world economy including Japan. Obama got a
strong following wind to win in the election as already stated above.
Ironically speaking, money market had been crashed guided by "invisible
hand of god" a famous word of Adam Smith in eighteenth century. Adam
Smith is the classic and most important economist who provided the principle of
free comepetition as a foundation of market economy in this modern world.
Subprime loan crisis was really the purnishment of god of market economy.
American people have learned the lesson that some change of the present
market economy system may be necessary and thought that Barak Obama is the
man who make this change.
Obama USA has now selected the change. Change the economy and their way of
life in many ways. That's great, I think.
What is the reaction of world against the change of US? What is the reaction
of our country, Japan? I have heard many words talled by politicians, people
in industry and so forth. Most of those people talk about their expectation
to Barak Obama. What do they wish Obama to do about their relation with
US from now on? Only a little people talk about how Japan should change
to go along well with Barak Obama who declared the change of his country.
America has now slected the way to make a great change of their country.
What's about our country, Japan? What is our selection? It seems our people
and country still in just status quo. This is the big diffrence between people
of two countries.
I was quite impressed to see the whole process of such a long election
campaign in US. People have heard a lot from candidates who represent
various ideas and principles. They have thought a lot to make a final
decision to select one last candidates for their president. Barak Obama
has immediately started to make a lot of works as the president in
January next year. It's really great process to go.
On the other hand what is happeing in Japan? Japanese politics is still in
a big mess. Prime Minister, Tarou Aso is trying to do his best to postpone
his admistration as long as possible. Happening of money crisis is his big
excuses for not disolve the Lower House for some emergent economic policies
are necessary to meet stituation.
What Aso Cabinet is trying to do is just a short time, shortsighted
measures. The idea of giving 15,000 yen per head is such typical foolish
measure to meet the fundamental economic problems which need more long
range structual measure to change the whole economy and society.
A lot of people seem to agree with Aso's assertion that now some emergent
economic policies are necessary and they are responsible to build one
rather than creating polical vaccume by dissolving Lower House.
I don't think so. Now is the time for change. And the change can only be
attained by the change of the present ruling fronts. They have already
made a lot of mistakes which lead to Japan to the present chaos of
economy and politics.
I wish Japanese people would have more strong sense of crisis to chage this
status quo situation.
2008/11/8
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(603):
Patience is the best policy for Democratic Party of Japan
At long last, the government and the ruling coalition have reached a consensus
on how to hand out fixed-sum benefits, the centerpiece of Prime Minister Taro
Aso's economic stimulus package. As the plan changed over and over again, the
government and the ruling coalition finally reached a compromise to let local
governments make the decisions. It is natural that every local offices
objected strongly against such poor decision. Most mass media criticized the
plan saying there will be no economic effects at all by taking such measures.
Facing such circumstances, ruling coalition try to postpone to submit related
bills and supplementary budgets at ordinal diet session which is expected to
start in early January next year rather than at the current temporary diet
session which will end at end of November. It is obvious that ruling
coalitions are trying to avoid serious attacks from opposition fronts on this
issue so that Prime Minister Aso will not dissolve the House of Representative
so soon. All ruling coalition seem to agree that dissolution of the diet
should be postponed until sometime spring nest year. They expect popular
votes for Aso Cabinet and ruling coalition will be improved to some extent by
that time.
Facing to world wide financial difficulties, Prime Minister Tarou Aso has
kept saying that execution of emergent economic stimulus policies is more
important than such political issue as dissolution of the diet. It sounds
fine at the beginning but he obviously is telling a lie at the moment. All
he tries to do now is to postpone the general election as long as possible
so that he can remain in the power for the time being. It is very possible
that he and his party will loose the power if the election is done at this
moment.
Executives of Democratic Party of Japan have done a lot of work preparing for
early general election. They have to change their words of expectation about
the time of election one after another in the past few months. Yukio Hatoyama,
Secretary General of DPJ said a few days ago that it is possible that the diet
would be dissolved at the time of Christmas. Yoshihide Suge, deputy director
of Election Committee of Liberal Democratic Party laughed away Hatoyama's
comment saying Prime Minister Tarou Aso would never follow such word.
That's the way it is. Ruling fronts are waiting for such misguidance of DPJ's
executives about their expectation on dissolution of the diet so that they
would loose the confidence from their party members. Lawmakers of the party
have worked hard preparing for early election. But their expectation have been
betrayed by the change of the situation. Candidates, especially of young
ones for next election seem to have consumed a lot of money and energy
already and they claimed that they are facing serious financial difficulties
as far as their election campaign money are concerned.
It is wrong that they claimed it against executives of the party. They should
blame Tarou Aso, Prime Minister, rather than their party leaders.
It is obvious that the election environment at each electorates will get worse
for ruling parties rather than opposition fronts especially for DPJ as far as
Tarou Aso continue such political stance at the moment. It is expected that
the popular vote for Aso Cabinet will continue to drop by the end of year and
even in new year.
It is now the time for DPJ to wait and see. Any trifling tact tics will not be
necessary.
.
For young lawmakers of DPJ should work more hard using more innovative measures
in election campaign. They should utilize power of net rather than conventional election
tactics. They should lean how to collect money by themselves rather
relying on their party. This is necessary condition for the party to win next
general election.
Wait and see even works in this very status quo country. Change of power will
be realized in next four months in the shortest period and in eight months in
the longest at any rate.
200811/15
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(604)F
Economic effect of Digitalization of TV
Digital TV set has been finally installed at our home a couple of
weeks ago. My wife has not agreed to buy a digital TV for she did not
understand the fact that the present analog TV system will end at November
2011 and all analog TV sets must be replaced by digital TV sets. She has
been against to buy a new TV set for TV set used until recently at our
home worked very well so far. The cathode ray tube of that TV was
accidentally replaced with new one two years ago. She did not understand
any reason to replace that TV with new one.
I personally have not been quite so eager to replace analog TV set with
digital set as well. I do not watch TV so much any way. But I know the
necessity to change to digital system in another two years or so and I
personally have some technical interests about digital TV system including
Blue-Ray high vision recording device. So I persuaded my wife and decided
to buy 37 inch size TV and Blue-Ray recorder at last.
Since we have been using cable TV system so far , some necessary engineering
works were done on last Saturday and we began to watch digital high vision
programs last Saturday. I was quite surprised with fine and beautiful
picture of TV set. The screen is as large as 37 inches and I was impressed
especially with high quality picture of NHK BS high vision programs.
But my wife still says some complains about it from time to time without
showing any interest in beautiful pictures of TV set. She asks me why we have
to switch from analog to digital and to spend such a lot of money. She
asked me if that is a kind of government decision to do so.
"Yes, all this had been decided by the government almost ten years ago or so.
We have to follow it at any rate." I answered this way, but I do not
understand so much about it myself. I am not quite sure about the whole process
about this change.
So I tried to learn more about the background and the process why and how the
government decided to proceed this project. I searched various announcements
at home page of Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. I found some
facts, of course but could not find so much facts and background any further.
In the meantime, what I really wanted to say now is something different.
I remembered the fact that economic effect of digitalization of TV is very
big while I was investigating various things at various sites in net on this
topics. One site writes the total economic effects of the digitalization
amounts more than 212 trillion yen. It's a large effects indeed if we
compared with such small effects of 2 trillion yen cash giving plan announced
recently by Aso Cabinet.
This digitalization plan is already going on at this moment and economic
effects of the plan is obviously very great which is incomparable with any
economic stimulus plans announced by Aso Cabinet so far. It may be good
idea to subsidize some percent of money for any ones who buy new digital TV
sets,
Such subsidies and/or some tax advantages can be provided for purchase of
some other goods and services such as solar systems, some CO2 and energy
saving items, hybrid cars and so forth.
Any such short and one time economic stimulus plans including cash giving
are not quite effective at all. There exits a number of more effective
and long lasting economic policies the government should consider to
start.
The digitalization of TV set is just one of such typical example as far
as I can observe.
2008/11/22
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(605):
Which one did win in Diet debate?
Prime Minister Taro Aso and opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa faced off Friday
in the Diet for the first time as party leaders. According to my judgment,
Ichiro Ozawa won totally in this debate session.
In this debate, Ozawa, president of Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan)
repeatedly pressed Aso to submit a second supplementary budget to the current
Diet session, citing growing concerns about the economy.
In their sparring over economic and other issues, Aso was especially careful
to watch what he said following a spate of recent verbal slips that incensed
doctors, the infirm and elderly people and even lawmakers within his ruling
Liberal Democratic Party.
He did not say enough about why his cabinet will not submit the second
supplementary budget at this diet session.
All what Aso called on Ozawa to exercise leadership by getting Minshuto
Upper House members to agree to an early vote on the financial aid bill
for bank. Ozawa in turn, asked Aso to make sure his LDP would agree to
deliberations on that same issue. "We in Minshuto have a different argument
from the government bill," Ozawa said. "We want the ruling parties to
participate in deliberations to revise the bill. The LDP absolutely refuses
to enter into such deliberations."
Ozawa also requested Aso to dissolve the diet as soon as possible, if his
cabinet does not submit a second supplementary budget to the current Diet
session. Ozawa said Aso: "It's against your first message which was issued
at your appointment to the new Prime Minister in September. " Aso did not make
any clear answer to that question also.
I was surprised to hear what Takeo Kawamura, Secretary General of Aso
Cabinet said in the press conference after the debate. He said: "Prime
Minister Aso made a good job in the debate session. He could have
done the job as the way we expected." I could not help laughing about what
he said. Kawamura meant to say that Aso did not make any verbal slipping in
this debate as every people in ruling fronts worried about.
I have been checking a number of articles about this debate in net news
and have not found almost no news paper article which made clear judgment
about which one Aso or Ozawa won in the debate. Many wrote the assertion
of two rather in detail but almost none wrote which one was more reasonable
in their debate. They should even judge which one defeated over the other
totally in this debate session. Most mass media avoided such judgment and
I don't know why it is.
The only clear judgment as such was shown in the Yahoo Net Research I
found in Yahoo portal site. The research asked: "Which one, Aso or Ozawa do
you think won in the debate session?" I voted to the research myself and
checked the result of it. 62% for Ozawa, 33% for Aso and the rest 5% for
draw.
I was quite satisfied with it. I was convinced with it not necessarily
because of the result of the research but because the research clearly request
to show the overall judgment about the winner of the debate. That is the
primary objective of the debate.
I look forward to seeing more concrete and objective evaluation of mass media
in one way or the other which will create larger political situation for the
change of status quo of this country.
2008/11/29
Tadashi HAYASE
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