My Opinion this week(70):
The Breakup of alliance
The Social Democratic Party announced to stop alliance with the
Liberal Democratic Party which lasted since 1994, when the then
Socialist Party took the power with the collation with the Liberal
Democratic Party and New Party Sakigake. They said this possibility
repeatedly recently, so there was no surprise at all. No serious
effects will be given to the Hashimoto Government, although New
Party Sakigake took the same course of action.
In 1993, the long lasted monopoly of political power by the LDP
ended and the Hosokawa Cabinet was born. The then Socialist Party
was one of the main alliance group of the ruling power. But they
broke up the alliance and then created the Murayama Cabinet under
the sponsorship of the LDP. It was a kind of skillful strategy of
the LDP. Mr. Murayama became the Prime Minister and Miss Do became
the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Such kain of alliance
might have been an unique case even in long history of politics not
only in Japan but also in any countries in the world.
The Socialist Party changed their name to the Social Democratic
Party in 1996. When the SDP lost their seats significantly in the
last general election, they switched their overall alleid relation
to the limited alliance without sending any cabinet members to the
new born Hashimoto Cabinet. During Murayama Cabinet days, they have
changed their basic policies greatly concerning defense and other
important policies. They admitted that the Self Defense Force is
constitutional which they had never admitted the fact before during
the Liberal Democratic Party was in power for so many years since
1955.
Since the DSP changed to the limited alliance , it seemed that
their stance on various basic policies such as on defense and
election systems swung back. They started to show some big
difference in various basic national policies from the LDP. And
the LDP became more arrogant in deciding various policies matters
because they regained major seats in the House of Representatives.
The big difference in the policy matters is shown , for examples,
on the guideline of the United State and Japan Securities Treaty.
The DSP was severely against to keep military bases in Okinawa.
And the recent difference in the opinion between the LDP is that
the DSP would not approve any donation of money from business
enterprises for any political activities. The major reason for
them to stop the alliance with the ruling party was that they could
not win in coming the election of House of Councils in July, if they
keep such relation with the LDP. They were afraid that they would
loose the support from their supporters in each electorate. It is
said that they would resume the alliance again after the election
is over.
I am quite critical about this kind of political stance of the DSP.
They seem to have no firm political principle and ideologies to
keep as a political party. It seems that they change their basic
political stance so easily. It is not only the DSP that loose the
confidence from people as political parties. Many of other parties
just repeat this kind of marriage and divorce in recent years. And
the DSP is just a typical example as such.
Japanese politics should now be revised so that such easy going
alliances should be eliminated and political parties should be more
royal to the principles and policies of their own parties rather
than just political tie-up to gain some powers in the political
world.
1998/6/6
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion this week(71)
The senseless decision
The twenty two registered members of Japanese team for the@World
Cup Soccer has finally been decided. Miura, Kitazawa and Ichikawa
were not selected as the registered members. Ichikawa is still
young and his shock seemed to be small but the shock of Miura and
Kitazawa was obviously very great because both of them have been
the major members of all Japan team for many years. It was reported
in newspapers that Mr. Okada, the manager of all Japan team had
made this very difficult decision with great pain and hardship.
We could easily imagine so when we heard that news,
Most newspapers and TV stations made a lot of report on this
next day. It had been one of the greatest news which drew such
a big attention among people in this country these days.
I personally have only little interest on the Word Soccer event
itself. I rather hate to hear so many news every day in TV and
newspapers these days. But I have a kind of keen interest in the
decision made by Mr. Okada, though. Without having any emotion
and feeling, he seemed to have selected the best 22 members with
some objective evaluation of ability of each members taking the
power and strategies of opponent teams to play with throughout
the games into consideration.
B
No body knows the outcome. But it was the decision made by Mr.Okada.
Not only me, but also many other people might have felt such severe
reality in sport events, and hardship and unfortunate reality of life.
We can easily guess how regrettable Miura was when he was told so.
It was his last chance to attain his dream to play in the World Cup
which he has had since his childhood. Some sport reporters said that
only 22 members should be selected first before they left Japan if
Mr, Okada already decided the matter. He could add one or two members
later on when it is necessary. That would have weaken the shock of
Mimura and Kitazawa.
I am not sure about that at all. May be, may be not. The final
decision must be made at any stage anyway. And there is no doubt
that decision is objectively made by the leader on this matter.
One of the newspaper in Argentine reported that drop of Miura,
"Moradona of Japan" from the National team would help the team of
Argentine very much. But such report itself may be some disturbing
action thrown from the opponent side.
We will see the result quite soon. Different from politics and
business, the result is the all answer and the result of the game
become very clear all time. If the result turned out to be rather
good, many mass media would change their critical comments toward
Mr. Okada and start to praise him instead. And if the result were
poor, they would cast a lot more criticism against Mr. Okada. I
can't agree with both cases at all.
What I want to say is that leaders in any world, regardless it is
politics, business and sports, must make their decision by
themselves based on his own mind. The case at this time taught us
the importance of decision making made by the leader without any
emotions and harmony which are always some most important element
to be considered in decision making in Japanese society. The lesson
we learned at this time is that leaders should never mix up the
emotion and the belief.
1998/6/13
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion this week(72):
Decreasing birth rate
The average number of children a Japanese woman gives birth to during
her lifetime dropped to a record-low 1.39 in 1997, according to statistics
released Wednesday by the Ministry of Health and Welfare. The decreasing
trend of population of this country became clearer than before.
At about the same time, it was announced that the growth rate of GDP of
Japan in 1997 had become minus the first time in 23 years. Japanese
economy is in serious conditions suffering stagnant consumption and
investment, cheaper yen, dropping of price of stocks, etc. Many economists
insisted the necessity to solve deflating condition of the economy. However,
under such condition of long range decreasing trend of population, it does
not make sense to talk about the growth of the economy itself. The more
serious issue relating to this birth rate is that Japan will become a more
high aged society and the welfare problem for the high aged people will
become more serious in 21st century.
This issue was discussed in the editorial of Nikkei Newspaper of June
4th. The title of the editorial was " Deterioration of social structure
owing to the low birth rate". The editorial commented that there would be
no basic solution at all just by symptomatic treatment. The symptomatic
treatment means some of those short-range measures taken to stimulate
to improve the birth rate including extra subsidies for new born babies,
some additional tax benefits for more number of children, etc. Those
measures will not be any basic solution, which help to change the life
style and the values that are shared by young women today. Those young
women have lost the interest in the wedding itself and in having some
common family lives with husbands and some number of children.
Marriage and having children is very difficult and hard work for those
young women today. Rather than having such hardship , it is better for
them to have some good jobs and to enjoy some hobbies in free time. The
society in general praises such life style of women these days.
It is true that there has been a great change of social structure
and change of values concerning life style of the people in recent
years. Another factor for the change of attitude of young women come
from habits and behaviors of Japanese men in their marriage life and
their cooperative manners to foster children. They are not necessarily
quite cooperative with their wives to bring up children in their family
life.
Unless there would be some basic change of the values and the
concepts of on life style of Japanese people, we would also see no
basic change in the mind of young women. What is the happiness of our
life? Unless young women will come back to think that a real happiness
in life is to make a happy marriage and to have a good family with
at least a few children, they will never make birth some children in
their life.
The question is whether or not young women will come back to have
such a healthy idea that marriage and family are the most precious
value of human life, although it is very tough and difficult by itself.
According to my belief, nothing is more valuable than fostering children
than any other works that exist as women's work today.
1998/6/20
Tadashi HAYASE
My Opinion this week(73):
Clean up of bad loans
The yen soared to high as 135 to the dollar in Tokyo trading last
Thursday after Japanese and U.S authorities conducted joint intervention
to stop the recent cheap yen conditions. In relation to this move
U.S Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers visited Tokyo to
push Japan to take some concrete and quicker measures to clean up
the bad loans weighing down its economy. It seems that Mr.Summer's
visit is another form of intervene for the domestic affairs of Japan.
But it is not so at all as far as the present condition of economy
of Japan is observed for a while.
The turmoil of Japanese economy will trigger some serious economic
disaster world wide if the present conditions last. It is necessary
for the yen to get stronger and Asian economy will be revived. In
order to fulfill that target, stabilization of Japanese finance system
is said to be the most important. Needless to say, the biggest reason
for the worst Japanese economic condition derives from a very un-
stable financial system involved with very high volume of bad loans
created during bubble days.
The Government has just started to take several basic measures
to improve the issues with or without such pressures from U.S. They
have started to investigate bad loans for 19 major city banks in
Japan,The Government will push those banks to clean up bad loans
as soon as and as much as possible. If they could not do it by
themselves, the Government will prepare the Government bucked banks
to process bad debt. The Government is about to put some public
fund into such banks.
Cleaning up bad loans have proceeded to a certain extent, but it
is said that such bad loans still counts 70 to 100 trillion yen in
total over various banks in Japan. Once this cleaning up operations
start, a number of banks will face serious financial difficulties.
A number of borrowing firms also face to bankruptcy. The Government
has taken a kind of deliberate stance because of such dangers expected.
However, Japanese economy is getting worse and worse and seem to
face the final stage of danger. Unless some drastic clean up operation
could be taken, there will be no chance for the nation to recover
the reliability from the domestic and international societies. Protec-
tion of saving is the most important in relation to this action process.
So far as this is done for sure, the Government authorities are re-
quested to take the utmost drastic clean up actions at this time.
Such clean up process is necessary both for lending banks and borrowing
firms,
To set up such the Government bucked banks to proceed the clean up
is entirely all right. It is also agreeable to put public funds to such
banks. But we will never allow to use public funds to save such banks
and other financial institutions which had performed such poor and
careless management during bubble days. Those bad performers should
be eliminated to some great extent at this time although that will
create some serious turmoil in the economy.
The people, the sponsor of this public funds will have the fullest
right to watch the process going on and to get all information
available to see the suitableness of the action underway.
1998/6/27
Tadashi HAYASE
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