My opinion of this week(637):
How will Yukio Hatoyama decide?
The ruling bloc lambasted Democratic Party of Japan President Yukio Hatoyama
over the political funds scandal he's embroiled in. Yukio Hatoyama held his
press conference Thursday and said :
"I think I answered to the media and to the people's doubts and questions
in my own way during the news conference the other day. Therefore, I think
that I fulfilled my responsibility to explain" the situation."
Crotics and other opposition parties, however, have said Hatoyama needs to
provide more details. I think, however, there will be any more details as far
as this matters are concerned. At any rate, Yukio Hatoyama made obvious
mistakes in handling this money contribution matter from legal points of
views. He should be criticized in this respect.
The ruling and opositin sides have been slinging mud at each other over
shady money in recent months, with former DPJ chief Ichiro Ozawa forced to
resign over alleged illegal donations from Nishimatsu Construction Co. which
also led to his aide's arrest.
On the LDP side, trade minister Toshihiro Nikai eventually came under the same
spotlight over the same contractor but was spared after prosecutors decided
not to build a case against him. Another shaddy case of money contribution
happened with Kaoru Yosano, Minister of Finance, another key member of Aso
Cabinet.
There are many other cases of the same kind concerning "political fund control
law" in ruling party lawmakers. Many of them have been processed without any
prosecution only by making correction of records or by returining contributed
money itself .
Many mass media criticized Yukio Hatoyama about what he did in the past. But
many pointed out the fact that several illegal treatments on contribuion are
found on the side of ruling fronts as wll including the case of Kaoru Yosano,
Minister of Finance and Toshihiro Nikai, Minister of Trade and Industry.
Under this circumstance, it is possible that this money contribution issue
will become the most important issue to be debated in coming general election.
That should not be the way it is. There are many more very important key
policies matters to be discussed in coming general election.
Yukio Hatoyama must know the danger of such possibilities. There are many more
important policies or manifests which should be debated between ruling fronts
and opposition fronts. DPJ must avoid such situation in which ruling fronts
execute a kind of negative camapaign concerning Yukio Hatoyama's scandal and
try to avoid to talk about many other key issues such as pention, medical
cares, agriculture, self defense and so and so forth.
In order to avoid such situation, it is possible that Yukio Hatoyama will
decide to resign from his position. He must now watch result of two local
election in shizuoka and in Tokyo. If DPJ won in those two, Yukio Hatoyama
and DPJ are not necessarily worry too much about his political fund scandal.
If not, Hatoyama would pay more attention on the move of recent popular
vote which will done in thesedays from time to time. If the popular vote were
too bad against him and his party, he would resign from his position very
soon. He would stay with his position if popular vote were not so bad against
hime and DPJ.
In the case of Yukio Hatoyama's resignation, Katuya Okada, General Secretary
of the party will be appointed to the new representative in a few days. He is
the ace wihtout any doubt to gain power over LDP following Hatoyama. The
probability for DPJ in winning in the election will be much higher than
before under the reign of Hatoyama . I don't know whether or not ruling front
really forecast this possibilities.
It seems there exists no capable executives in LDP who can see this will
happen once Yukio Hatoyama resigns from this position. I think the chace of
Hatoyama's resignation is much less for DPJ for the party will win in two
local elections, and the popular vote will continue to cast majority vote
for Yikio Hatoyama and his party rather than Prime Ministe Tarou Aso and his
ruling front under the present circumstance.
2009/7/4
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(638):
Dissolution of the diet is the best souvenir
What was the intention of Tarou Aso, Prime Minister to attend the summit
in Italy at this time? The popular supporting rate for Aso Cabinet is
only about 20% now and the possibility of reappointment of Tarou Aso as
Prime Minister after next general election is almost zero provided that
present ruling party could stay in power. Most people in Japan know this
fact and all foreign top leaders who attend the summit must realize that
same way.
Prime Minister Tarou Aso went out to attend the summit under such
circumstances. Although some politicians, critics and mass media mention
some cynical comments on this, there were no outspoken criticism heard
even from opposition fronts concerning Aso's attendance to the summit.
It is because that is a kind of common courtesy against Prime Minister of
Japan regardless they are in any position. If they blame Tarou Aso,
Prime Minister, for that kind of reason, it is shameful sort of conducts
for the country of Japan.
All foreign leaders who attended to the meeting must have acted against
Prime Minister Tarou Aso very politely although they know the fact that
he only had a little political power in Japan at the moment. They just
talked to Aso friendly and send back smiles against his smile. That's it.
That the way it is. That is nothing more than a social etiquette. I just
wonder if Tarou Aso realize this.
According to many news reports, Prime Minister Tarou Aso went to the
summit to show some fruits he get from diplomatic and political negotiation
with those top leaders of G8 so that he can resume some popularity in
domestic politics. I assure that will never happen in any respect.
The one most typical example as such was Aso's talks with Russian President
Dimitry Medvedev concerning the sovereignty of Kunashiri, Etorofu, Habomai,
and Shikotan islands. Aso expected to get some concrete answer from Medvedev
against his past proposal. But there were no virtual answer at all from
Russian side.
Some mass media criticized this negotiation blaming the lack of Aso's
leadership on this matter. But from my point of view, it is completely
wrong to expect some advancement on the negotiation under the reign of
Aso administration which is loosing power sooner or later. How can top
leader of Russia discuss such important matter so seriously with such
weak opponent? It is natural that Russia will wait and see what will
happen in Japanese politics in next two months or so.
As a matter of fact, people in Japan did not expect any diplomatic fruits
which could have attained by Prime Minister Tarou Aso at summit meeting.
The one most important souvenir from Tarou Aso is that he will declare to
dissolve the diet just after the election of Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly on
July 12th regardless of lose or victory for ruling parties. That is the
best course of action for himself and all people of the country. All
political chaos in Japan at the moment will be solved through general election
to be made in early August as a result of his decision.
We are seriously afraid the situation that Tarou Aso will continue to leave
the present chaos as it is, and stay in his position until late of
August to make general election in early September. The worst situation
is that he will resign from Premiership and let his party elect a new
president of the party and a new Prime Minister to be by spending another
month or so as happened three times before.
A majority of lawmakers of Liberal Democratic Party expects that will
happen by autonomous resignation of Tarou Aso from top position. It is
possible that Tarou Aso will choose that course of action also.
It is my sincere hope that Prime Minister Tarou Aso will select the best
course of action as stated above.
2009/7/11
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(639):
DPJ's strategy for general election
The landslide victory of DPJ in Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election was
a great shock for ruling Liberal Democratic Party. There existed some
sort of very negative forecast before the election but the result was
much worse than such pessimistic forecast.
Such overall victory of DPJ in Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election is
not necessarily just a kind of accidental happening or phenomena. It was
rather the result of strong will of people for the change about politics
in this country. They have been shown in many local election such as
Nagoya City, Saitama City, Chiba City, Sizuoka Prefecture and so on since
early April. Candidates supported by DPJ won against candidates supported
by ruling LDP and New Komeito Party.
Prime Minister Tarou Aso has said the result of those elections in local
cities and prefectures have virtually nothing to do with the general
election to be made on August 30th. But Prime Minister Tarou Aso is
completely wrong concerned with it. The result of election of local area
including Tokyo is nothing more than the reflection of will of people for
change of Japanese politics.
People all over the country now have some sort of strong will for the
change in politics not only in local area and in central area. People took
such behaviors in election of local area assuming that they will take
the same conducts in coming general election. It is quite obvious move by
any means. No body can stop this strong wind any more in any respects.
Nevertheless, there still exists a strong resistance against this move in
ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Hidenao Nakagawa, Tutomo Takebe, Kouichi
Katou, and many other leading members of LDP started trying let Tarou
Aso resign from the President of LDP. All of those anti-Aso lawmakers
casted votes against no-confidence motion against Aso Cabinet on Wednesday
at Lower House. All LDP lawmakers casted the poll to reject the bill. They
all casted their vote of confidence for Prime Minister Tarou Aso.
Surprising enough, soon after this confidence vote, almost one third of LDP
lawmakers led by those leading people started such moving to pull down Tarou
Aso from the Presidency of LDP. They confided Tarou Aso as a Prime Minister.
But they said they didn't trust Tarou Aso as the President of LDP. I really
don't understand this logic at all. I think the majority of people in Japan
never understand this silly logics at all.
There are many more leading LDP lawmakers who insist the necessity of
resignation of Tarou Aso from the President position. All of their intension
is to avoid such strong wind which blow against ruling fronts. It is silly
that those anti-Aso lawmakers believe that they and their party can reverse
the wind again by changing President Tarou Aso to some one else. Never
happen!
Under this strong wind, the strategy for DPJ to win in the general election
is very obvious. It is not necessary for the party to appeal the necessity of
change of power any more. It is not to be a main election slogan any more.
The main statement is now explanation about contents of manifest. They should
explain the contents of manifest as concrete as possible. There exists
hundreds of important issues but they should concentrated them into at least
ten major issues or so. They should explain what will happen in politics when
the change of power is realized. They should explain the difference between
the politics in the past and the one in the new administration.
All those election campaigns are very important process of learning for people
in this country about new politics and society. That will start on July 21.
As a result of such learning process, I believe the change of power will
surely happen on the night of August 30th. I look forward to watching that
happen without fail.
2009/7/18
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(640):
Principle of consistency on foreign and defense policies
On Friday, Prime Minister Tarou Aso and several cabinet members
criticized Democratic Party of Japan on the fact that the party made
an announcement concerning the change on some parts of their manifest
concerning diplomatic and self-defense issues. Under the current
political situation when the change of power may happen after the general
election on August 30, it is quite necessary for DPJ to mention that they
will continue the present diplomatic and self-defense policies for the
time being even after the change of power.
Such consistency is especially necessary for any diplomatic and self-defense
issues for they are related with the relationship with many foreign
countries in international society. Any of those diplomatic issues cannot
be changed overnight even change of power happen. It is quite natural for
DPJ to mention that the new cabinet will continue the supply of oil at
Indian Ocean even after the change of power. The party continued to mention
the anti-piracy measures at Somalia by Self Defense Force will be allowed
in principle in new administration. The party also suggested to pass the
law to investigate cargo of North Korean ship soon after the birth of new
administration.
Prime Minister Tarou Aso and several cabinet members criticized severely
this change and divert of the course of action of DPJ. Are they quite
reasonable to say that? I don't think so.
It is quite right for DPJ to make several adjustments on their manifest
especially on diplomatic and self-defense issues so that any of the current
operation which are going on are to be guaranteed even by new administration.
Any manifest exist to show a long range targets to be attained by political
parties. DPJ will take all necessary steps to attain those long range
plans while they keep consistency all what are going on at the moment.
Some may be stopped immediately and new operation may be started. Some may
take a lot of time to make change happen. It is the process of adjustment
between change and consistency.
Facing to the possible change of power in next forty days, it is natural
for DPJ start working on such adjustment to make change suggested in
manifest happen in reality.
As a matter of facts , such adjustment process is necessary in all fields
of policies and manifests but some fundamental adjustment is necessary
especially on diplomatic and self-defense issues are concerned. That sort
of action is not diversion of course of principles stated in manifest but
the process is very necessary step to make change happen in reality.
All of those ruling fronts people including Tarou Aso who blamed those
DPJ's adjustment process are to be criticized for their short sighted view
and comments.
What Representative Yukio Hatoyama of DPJ should do now is to explain people
all of those necessary process of transfer of power which may happen after
August 30. Ironically speaking, many of those criticism from ruling fronts
provide DPJ a good opportunity to make a good simulation for smooth transfer
of power which happen soon in this country.
2009/7/25
Tadashi HAYASE
English Home Page
Japanese Home Page