My opinion of this week(532)
Consumer tax becomes a main election issue
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed at a TV news show that he has never
denied any possibility of rising consumer tax in near future. Several
top executive members of Liberal Democratic Party criticized Abe's
comment that he should have never mentioned it for rising consumer tax
is another critical minus issues in coming election for ruling front.
Whether they worry about the effect or not , it is very clear that Abe
Cabinet and ruling front will rise consumer tax in near future when
introduction of new pension plan is planned. Most Japanese people know
that it is very possible for the Government to rise consumer tax sooner
or later when time comes. People now worry about the pension recording
system itself but they have another concern about how the current pension
system will be revised . They know how those revision will be financed
so that new system will really work as planned.
Most people know the fact it is possible that consumer tax will be
raised by 3% or 5% to finance the new pension plan.
As a matter of fact, this issue was debated by two top leaders a week
ago. Prime Minister Abe asked Ichirou Ozawa, President of Democratic
Party of Japan how they can make money to fund new pension plan as
they proposed before without rising consumer tax. Ozawa answered to
Abe that the new Government when DPJ would be in power can create
fund without rising consumer tax by cutting administrative cost
significantly. Abe criticized Ozawa that such plan is not practical
at all.
Abe must have indicated to say that the introduction of new pension
scheme is possible only by rising consumer tax as they have already
indicated. So it does not make sense for LDP leaders to say they
should avoid this argument about rise of consumer tax at this summer
election.
I think it is fine for Prime Minister Abe to argue this point in
this election in connection with pension issues. Main concerns at
this moment is about recording of pension plan but this issue will
be extend to basic revision of total plan at the next stage. And
the issue will be discussed with the necessity of rise of consumer
tax sooner or later as to a necessary fund to support the plan.
DPJ proposed a new plan which involves no increase of consumer
tax. Many people of Japan are not quite sure whether or not
their plan are practical. But it is fine if the plan really works
as DPJ proposed. People must look forward to hearing their plan more
in detail in coming election campaign. The party should explain the
plan to people in more concrete way.
I just don't understand why LDP tries to avoid the argument in this
election. It is not the matter in the long run but the issue is
the one at near hand.
2007/7/7
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(534):
Fundamental reform is necessary for the present pension system
The election of House of Councils has started on Thursday. I am quite
anxious to watch TVs and read newspapers on various issues. The biggest
concerns of people concentrated on pension system which is ignited by
incorrect recording problem at Social Insurance Agency. Prime Minister
Abe repeated to say that all people who paid insurance fee will be
guaranteed to get pension money. People seem to take it very funny.
Why not? People take it for granted because the Government is fully
responsible for it at any rate.
People are now more concerned with the basic pension system itself rather
than recording issues. Prime Minister Abe and ruling parties started
criticizing new pension system proposed by Democratic Party of Japan.
They said there exists no fund which is able to pay basic pension money
to all low income people. Ruling fronts criticize that such pension plan
is quite unrealistic.
Ozawa Ichirou, President of DPJ answered to such criticism saying they
can create such fund by making fundamental change of administrative system
of central and local governments.
Such debate itself still involves a number of ambiguous points. But I
think it fine that such debate is being done in various way under this
circumstances. Most people of Japan now feel that the present pension
system is not working any more. Young ages are afraid that they may not
be able to get pension money when the time comes.
A number of young men do not participate in the plan based on such observation.
There is no definite way to force them to pay insurance fee as far as the
present system continues.
This pension issue was also brought up at the general election in last fall.
But the issue had been wiped out by such silly issue of privatization of the
postal system led by then Priminister of Koizumi. Japanese people themselves
are responsible for the result that brought up at this time. They should not
make the same mistake and they will not at this time.
There is no doubt that present pension system must be reformed basically
from any point of views. The only concrete and comprehensive counter measures
to the current system is the scheme proposed by DPJ. People must learn more
about their proposal in detail and vote for them in coming election.
The change of the pension system is only possible by the transfer of power
in coming election and possible general election in near future. I do hope
this will happen as soon as possible. Unless this would happen, there is no
hope for improvement of our life, especially of young people in next two
and three decades.
2007/7/14
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(535):
Energy policy of Japan
The whole country is now in the middle of House of Council election. I have
just noticed one thing about Manifesto presented by several political parties.
No energy policies are mentioned in any of Manifesto of major parties. Most
mention about ecology, specifically about the reduction of CO2. But no
parties show any of energy policies connected closely with the necessity of
reduction of CO2.
When it comes the securities of a nation, I think there are three categories
concerned. The first one is defense from military attack from other countries.
Most parties show their policies on it in connection with the change of
constitution. This would have become the most important issue if pension
record issue did not occur just before the election campaign started.
The second securities of a nation is securing food for people. Food self-
sufficiency rate in this country is just only about 40% while other Western
country's food self-sufficiency rate is almost 100%. It is a serious issue
as a matter of fact. Some major parties including Democratic Party of Japan
mention the necessity to improve the rate in relation with basic agricultural
policies of the country in their Manifesto.
The third securities of a nation is securing energy for national economy.
No parties virtually show any of their basic policies about energy at this
time as I wrote already.
Just in the middle of the election, there occurred Nigata Cyuetu Earthquake
on July 16. This was the second large earthquake following the big earth
quake happened three years ago almost at the same territory. The serious
issue was a fire at Kashiwazaki-Kariha Nuclear Power Station caused by the
earth quake. The safety of nuclear power station itself has become the major
concern not only for Kashiwazaki-Kariha Nuclear Power Station but also for
nuclear power stations in this country. City of Kashiwazaki ordered Tokyo
Electric Power Co. to stop all nuclear seven reactors at Kariha Power
Station. Some serious shortage of electricity will occur during this summer
at Tokyo metropolitan area.
Japan is earthquake countries and safety of a number of nuclear stations
spread all over Japan will become the third serious security issue of energy
for this country sooner or later.
We must reduce CO2 gas. But at the same time, we must secure energy which is
necessary to live. Nuclear power station now share about 30% of total electric
power source. The country cannot stop using nuclear power to get electricity
so easily. Or shall we stop using it like Germany to secure the safety for
residents?
I found no imagery policies especially on nuclear power generation in Manifesto
of any of political parties at this time. It is sure that this will become
on other very important policy issues in the year to come. I suggest that
each major parties especially of LDP and DPJ are responsible for showing their
basic energy policy in the long run even in this summer election in one way or
the other.
I think it another big issue for the people to decide their voting performance.
2007/7/21
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(536):
No serious debate over policies?
The House of Councilors election will be held Sunday. We will see
the overall result by 11pm midnight of Sunday. Most mass media forecast
the victory of Democratic Party of Japan over ruling front. Many people
of Japan and I expect the change of politics as a result of the election
at this time.
While almost all mass media foresee the victory of opposition front over
ruling fronts, there are some difference in the view as to voting behavior
of people of Japan. Some papers express some kind of disappointment and
show some criticism against voting behavior of people.
Yomiuri Newspaper, for example, wrote this way in their editorial on July
28. "Unfortunately, the 17-day election campaign period was not utilized
properly. ... There was no serious debate over policies. The only thing
that seem to gather voter's attention were ministers' gaffes and suspicious
actions. ...While these are issues that should not be overlooked, political
parties should have been competing with each other by arguing the
effectiveness of their policies and presenting road maps for the nation's
future."
I do not agree with this editorial. The title of this editorial says :
"Keep a cool head when you vote". The editorial looks like saying people
may be misled only by some of those scandals of cabinet members without
taking much attention on policies of each parties. That what they mean to
say the necessity of keeping cool head.
I am against the view shown by Yomiuri from two point of views. Firstly
I want to say what wrong with stressing the importance of scandals to
decide voting behavior. It is one important criteria to select candidate
in any elections.
Secondly, I think Yomiuri makes a serious mistake when they say there
exists no debate on policies including pension issues during this election
campaign. I see some significant debate on pension policies even made
directly between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and DPJ (Democratic Party of
Japan) President Ichirou Ozawa. The debate was not enough necessarily
but provide some fundamental understanding of people about the difference
in ideas and system of pension policies of two major parties.
Provided that DPJ would win in this election, the pension policies will
continue to be the major policy issues in coming general election of House
of Representatives in near future. Fundamental change of total pension
scheme will be discussed in the election.
Many other policies will also be debated in general election next time together
with a new pension scheme proposed more concretely by DPJ and other political
parties including LDP (Liberal Democratic Party).
That's the way it is. As a result of the election at this time, if turns out
good, people are ready to hear more about details on how the current pension
system will be changed into some reasonable and sustainable system for all
people.
I do expect that will happen from now on which is the only way to make
necessary change of pension system for people of this country.
2007/7/29
Tadashi Hayase
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