My opinion of this week(610):
What will happen in Japanese politics fron now on?
The ordinary diet session will start on January 5th, 2009. Prime Minister Tarou
Asou is going to submit the second supplemental budget which includes fixed
cash benefit plan and the budget for fiscal 2009 to the diet. He insisted that
both two were very necessary actions to face the eonomic crisis underway. He
said it is his responsibility to pass both two bills without dissolving the
House of Representative right at the moment which opposition parties have
asked since he was elected to Prime Minister in October last year.
DPJ(Democratic Party of Japan) and other opposition fronts are trying not to
pass the above two budget plans at this diet session. DPJ insists to seperate
fixed money benefit plan from the second supplementary budget saying
it is possible for them to agree with the major parts of send supplemental
budget itself, but they cannot agree with the fixed money benefit plan by any
means. According to the popular vote research, 60 to 70% of people are against
the plan for no big economic effects is expected by conducting such plan. 2
trillion yen necessary for the plan should be spent for other purpose as
opposition parties and even some ruling parties members insist.
If there were 17 lawmakers or more who would oppose this money benefit plan
inside of LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) , the second supplementary budget
will be turned down at the Lower House. Prime Minister Tarou Aso is obliged to
dissolve the Lower House immediately even in the middle of January.
This is supposed to be the best course of action for politics in this country
at the moment from any points of views.
Even if Prime Minister Tarou Asou could pass the second supplement budget in
one way or the other, he will face to much more difficulties to pass the
budget for fical year 2009 which is the most critical part of job for Aso
administration to face economic crisis of the country. The budget plan was
announced at the press conference by Prime Minister Tarou Asou by himself
at the last year end.
The budget plans involve a lot of serious defects and problems as a mater of
facts. In order to cover big increased expenditures, issuance of huge
deficit-covering national bonds was decided. This was obvious change of policy
from financial reform plan which was started by Koizumi cabinet and followed
as basic financial plan of ruling two LDP cabinets.
Anoher ig issue is that Prime Minister Tarou Assou indidated to increse
consumer tax in next three years to cover fund which is expected to face the
serious shourtage sooner or later. It is expected that Aso Cabinet and ruling
parties will face some serious difficulties in the arugments of fiscal budget
at the diet. It is possible that Prime Minister Tarou Asou is obliged to
accept several ammendments on their budgetary plan by DPJ and agree to dissolve
the Lower House on the condition that DPJ would agree with the budget for
fiscal year 2009 to pass the diet. This is so called ''an arranged dissolvement
of diet''.
This is a kind of fine process by itself and I think that is the second best
course of action next to the above mentioned the above to go for general
election.
The last and the worst case still exists unfortunately. There exists several
LDP members who insisted Tarou Aso to stay in power untill September this year
when the term of Lower House membership expires. Under such critical economic
and financial condition, Prime Minister stay in the position to do everything
possible to save this country in such emmergent case. It is possible many
people may accept such sophistic words.
I think it the worst case for Japanese politics and do hope that people should
never be decived by such false words.
2009/1/3
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(611):
To develop sightseeing business in Japan
The number of foreign visitors to Japan in 2008 turned downward for the first
time in five years, totaling about 9.15 million, down 5,800, or 0.1 percent,
from the previous year when it marked a record high, the Justice Ministry said
Thursday in a preliminary report.
The number was on the rise in the first half of the reporting year, but
dwindled in the latter half against the backdrop of the global economic
downturn and the yen's surge," a ministry official said. The decline is said
to be mainly attributable to a significant decrease in the number of visitors
from South Korea, which saw its currency tumble sharply in the reporting year.
They have accounted for about 30 percent of the totaling recent years.
At any rate, I recognized the fact the number of visitors to Japan is not
quite decreasing so much while the numbers of Japanese traveling overseas
meanwhile fell for the second straight year, down 7.6 percent from the year
before to 15.99 million in a refection of the slowing economy and the rise in
airfares following crude oil price hikes.
I think the number of visitors to Japan are to be increased much more exceeding
the number of travelers from Japan some day in the future by developing
sightseeing business in this country which is very necessary for many reasons.
The motives and the reasons why I started thinking about the necessity to
develop sightseeing business in Japan is the fact that I was surprised to see
so many foreign visitors at Hakuba resort town in Nagano Prefecture where I
visited Monday and Tuesday of this week. Hekuba is my favorite place to visit
during summer time, and I visited there first time of the year in recent years.
There were so many foreign people, probably mainly Europeans, at ski sites,
rail road stations, town streets, shopping stores and so forth.
Hecuba is a famous ski site where Nagano Winter Olympic Games was held in
1998 and is one of very popular spots for skiers and snowboarders. The town
was clouded with a lot of skiers during ski season. But visitors were
decreasing significantly in recent years for a number of more convenient spots
have been developed for ski and snowboard lovers these days. But it seems that
Hecuba has gained its popularity thanks to those foreign visitors. Hecuba has
been recognized by those Europeans who demand high grade quality services in
many ways as a good spot. They continued to visit there for they are satisfied
with is place and services regardless various disadvantages at this time.
Well, Hecuba is just one small example. There are a lot of attractive sight-
seeing spots in Japan in many fields and area. A lot more foreign visitors
will come to visit such places all over Japan by making proper development
practices by local and central government agencies.
Sightseeing is one of very important business in this country to earn foreign
exchanges, to develop local industries and to develop total internal demands
and employments when many export industries are facing financial difficulties
under current economic situations.
I remember the news that Tourism Authority of Japan was newly founded on
October 1 last year in the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and
Tourism. The purpose of this new foundation is to develop sightseeing business
in Japan.
Unfortunately the news drew only a little attention among people and mass
media. It was because the timing of foundation of such new Authority at that
time was very bad. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
was facing a number of corrupt practices inside of the ministry and there
existed a big political events such as election of the President of LDP. So
there were almost no interests paid on the birth of such new organization
as Truism Authority.
The budgets for physical year 2009 are now being discussed at the diet session.
It is now the time that the necessity to develop sightseeing business in Japan
that should be discussed much more seriously for all economic and cultural
development of this country at diet session under way.
2009/1/10
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this@week(612):
What a miserable Liberal Democratic Party!
That notorious cash handout program amounting 2 trillion yen has passed at
the House of Representative this week. Two lawmakers, Yoshimi Watanabe and
Kenta Matunami expressed their opposition to the bill by walking out from
the diet at the time of vote. Needless to say that it was a kind of big
damage for ruling bloc. There actually exists many more number of lawmakers
who oppose the bill inside of Liberal Democratic Party, but they did not
oppose the bill for the party's rule prohibits to oppose any bills which was
decided by the party.
The program itself was originally suggested by Koumei Party that provides
a big support for LDP at the time of election. LDP cannot stop keeping such
coalition relation with Koumei Party although a number of LDP lawmakers are
against the program itself. It was very silly to see that such a key man of
LDP as Kouichi Katou explained at his lecture meeting that kind of subordinate
position of LDP with Koumei Party at the moment. He admit the fact that the
party is obliged to follow the intention of Komei Party to survive in coming
election sooner or later.
The diet session of the second supplementary budget will start at the House
of Councils in next week. The bill will be rejected at the House of Councils
for the majority vote is shared by opposition parties including Democratic
Party of Japan. But it is assumed that the bill will be sent back to the
House of Representative and will be approved again by 2/3 of affirmative
votes by ruling parties although there exists a number of difficulties
involved with the bill it selves.
Following to the second supplemental budget, the main theme of the current
diet session is to discuss on the budget physical year 2009. One of the
biggest concern of the budget programs at this time is whether or not
the Government will express the increase of consumption tax in next three
years in the total plan. Prime Minister Tarou Aso strongly insisted to say
that ruling fronts should express the increase of the consumption tax in next
three years to get necessary source of fund to execute various policies. It
is the responsibility of ruling Liberal Democratic Party which is responsible
for the present power position of the country.
But there exists a lot of oppositions against the clarification of tax
increase by Aso Cabinet inside of LDP. A number of lawmakers of LDP are
requesting to withdraw the statement expressing to increase tax in three
years even under reservation of some conditions. Those opposing groups
insist that such statement to increase tax will provide some serious
disadvantages for the coming election.
It is very possible that a lot more lawmakers of LDP will express their
opposition against the budget plan 2009 and the bill itself will be
rejected at the House of Representatives.
Several LDP lawmakers who oppose to stipulate to increase the tax at
this time appear these days at TV news show at various stations.
They explicitly criticize Aso's policy and suggest the government to
withdraw such idea. But it is very strange that they do not forget to add
they will continue to support Aso Cabinet at the same time.
Yes, that is the way it is. They elected Aso as the President of LDP only
three months ago. How can they reject Aso's basic policy as such? They are
in a big trouble if they are asked by a castor of TV news show. "You are
against the policy of Aso. Then, are you going to vote against the budget
plan at the diet session?"
How can they answer to such question? The only answer they can make is
something like this:
"Well, we will continue to discuss this matter inside of the party and
ask Prime Minister to change his policy. There are several ways of
compromises for both sides. "
We don't want to see any more such contradictions and compromise on such
very important matter as budget plan for the country in the diet session.
The supporting rate for Also Cabinet continued to go down to 20% or less.
A lot more people now support Democratic Party of Japan rather than LDP.
It is really a serious political situations right now at the moment.
Prime Minister Aso and ruling parties are responsible 100% for such deadlock
situations. The only way to get out from this deadlock is to dissolve the
House of Representative as soon as possible.
2009/1/17
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(614):
President Obama and Prime Minister Aso
Barack Obama was sworn in Tuesday as the 44th president of the United States,
becoming the first black American to occupy the White House. Millions of people
around the world watched TV show and listened to his inaugural speech. It was a
wonderful one.
People expected that Barak Obama would start something new to change the world
in his several drastic economic policies to save US and world from serious
economic recession and bring peace to Near East , Afgnistan, etc. in the world by
his new foreign policies.
Japanese mass media are no exception. Every mass media report all of this
inaugural events in detail for long hours. That's fine, I generally have no
complaints about it. I have one serious complaint, though.
While watching those news show, I listened to several unpleasant comments made
by commentators of TV news shows presented by several TV stations. One of
commentators said, for example: "Yes, I was quite impressed with Barak Obama
about his leadership as the president of US. US is very lucky to have such a
great leader. " Well, no problem as far as the comments so far. Referring to
Obama's high supporting rate which is almost 80% at this time of the moment,
a commentator continued to mention the fact his supporting rate even exceed 90
% in Japan according to a research made by a certain Japanese mass media.
The commentator said and I quote: "It is surprising to see his supporting rate in
Japan is even higher than in US. Why is this? It is because this high
supporting rate for Obama is the reflection of low supporting rate against
Prime Minister Tarou Aso of Japan. "
I got angry when I heard this word. But I felt more angry when I heard the
comment which followed his previous word. He said:"Japanese people are now
disappointed with the capacity of the present leader of this country. They
may also be disappointed with the capacity of top leaders who will replace
Prime Minister Tarou Aso sooner or later. "
I hit the table in front of me and murmured myself. "What are you talking
about? " There exist so many such poor commentators in Japanese mass media
especially in TV stations.
Needless to say, such poor Japanese political situations come from poor
political parties consist of poor lawmakers and politicians. But
Japanese people are 100% responsible for sending such poor lawmakers to
the diet. The mass media have another responsibilities to create such
poor political situations in this country in many years,
The second supplementary budget plan is now discussed at the diet. The
budget for next fiscal years will be started in next week. Many ruling
fronts lawmakers are now starting to say the necessity of the change of
political system in this country. Some say the necessity to reduce a
number of lawmakers at the diet. Some say the integration of two
parliaments into one by abolishing the House of Council. Many ruling
fronts politicians believe the present chaos in politics come from some
defects of the current political system. No, I don't think so.
The present chaos in politics is just the disease condition of the politics
at the moment. They will be improved greatly by making the change of the
power. No other way exists except the change of power by making general
election as soon as possible.
I do not deny the fact that there exist some necessity to improve current
political system in some fields mentioned above including the system of
direct election of Prime Minister rather than the present parliamentary
cabinet system although I do not discuss the matter in detail right now.
Rather than talking about the change of political system, I am sure to say
the first step to improve the politics of this country is the change of
power at any rate in any ways. People in this country is still politically
very immature because of the lack experience about the change of power not
because of some defects of political system.
2009/1/24
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(615)
Party representative questions
Prime Minister Tarou Alsou and other few cabinet members made policy
speeches on Wednesday concerning physical year 2009 budget.Question-and-
answer session in connection with those policy speeches started on
Thursday. Kunio Hatoyama, secretary of Democratic Party of Japan and
Makiko Tanaka, an independent lawmaker, questioned Prime Minister Tarou Asou
representing DPJ. Several mass media criticized the fact that Ichrou Ozawa,
Representative of DPJ did not stand for the question for a questioner
is usually a representative of political parties.
I personally don't agree with any of such criticism for both Kuino Hatoyama
and Makiko Tanaka did their job OK without any problems. One of a commentator
of TV news show said:"It may a gesture of Ichoro Ozawa that Asou cabinet
is not worth debating with each others looking from their political stance
shown by Asou Cabinet in recent months. " I agreed with this commentator to
a greater extent. I don't think that this "Party representative question
time is so important politically any more as far as lame-duck condition of
Asou administration is concerned.
I have been watching the session by NHK TV for two days both at House of
Representative and House of Councils Thursday and Friday. The whole sessions
were kind of dull and not exciting at all.
All questions were presented to the secretary of the cabinet beforehand.
Bureaucrats at various ministries wrote answers for each questions in short
period of time. All what Prime Minister Tarou Asou has to do is to read up
the model answer at the diet session. No debate actually exists at all.
This party question time is not really working so well as a matter of fact.
It does not make sense that questioners also come from ruling blocs namely
Liberal Democratic Party and Komei New Party. Hroyuki Hosoda, Secretary of
LDP and Akihiro Ohta, representative Komei New Party, appeared at question
time and utilized the session to appeal their policies rather than any
debate or argument.
To debate various policies on physical year budget, the discussion at
several committees of two Houses may be more useful for people to know
issues more in detail. Questions to key issues are also sent to the cabinet
office beforehand, but the answers are told generally by Prime Minister Tarou
Asou or any other cabinet members by their own words.
At any rate, the reason why such party representative question is generally
so dull especially at this time is rather obvious. It is due to the legitimacy
of Asou Cabinet by itself. In the editorial of Jan 28th, Asahi News Paper
criticized the fact that Asou Cabinet has not got yet any support from peoples
through general election . This is the reason why any of their policies are
not well welcomed by people. The low rate agaist Aso cabinet also comes from
it.
Any hot arguments and debate between two major parties which mass media expect
will follow only after the dissolusion of House of Representative is realized
probably at the end of April.
2009/1/31
Tadashi HAYASE
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