My opinion of this week(616):
Government note as marijuana
I started uploading a series of hundred English verbs on my Yahoo Blog at
a half month ago which were already worked out and saved in my home page
several years ago. I wrote some appropriate comments on each verbs on every
proverbs. On February 2, I put 9th proverb in BLOG. The 9th one is :"Bad money
drives out good."
The meaning of this proverb is very clear. In every countries, central banks
issue their bank notes on behalf of government. For example, in Japan, Bank
of Japan issues several kinds of bank notes and coins. Those bank notes work
like blood of human body in our economic system. The degree of confidence for
their own money depends on goodness of economic and political conditions of
each countries. Those countries economic conditions of which is very bad
would face to a kind of serious inflation. The value of money of inflation
countries will go down so that they have to pay a lot more money to buy goods
and services from other countries.
From this point of view, Japanese yen is one of the most stable money in the
world. There is no inflation trend at all. The value of yen is high compared
with any other major foreign money such as dollar and Yuro. Yen is surely a
good money in any respects. Although Prime Minister Tarou Asou often mention his
worry about current economic conditions, Japanese economy is not quite so
serious from basic economic criteria such as price of commodities. I don't
understand why economist worry too much about deflation conditions of Japanese
economy. People can survive to live under this deflation conditions while
their level of income go down to some great extent. To keep this deflation
conditions is to be one important basic economic policy from this point of
view.
But contrary to this deflation trend, several eononomists and government
authorities tend to insist to get out from deflation and even insist needs
for inflation to a certain degree. They insist to attain some degree of
economic growth rather than deflation trend of economy. And in order to
attain some economic grow under this deflation trend, some special
financial policy is necessary. For example, Yoshihide Suge, a key man for
Asou Administration, has started insisting the necessity to issue government
note to vitalize economy. Government notes are issued by government rather than
ordinal notes to be issued by Bank of Japan. That is second money issued directly
by government.
Some economists and financial professions say some big effects of issuing such
government money to stimulate economy. The increase of individual consumptions
is expected very much by issuing such government money. There is no need for
the government to compensate for the issue of the money not like national bond
issued as debt to people of this country. They also pointed out some success
stories about government notes in the past years.
That really sounds fine. But there are many economists and governments
authorities who warn the danger to issue such government notes under this
economic circumstance. The danger is that issuing such government money
may cause hyper inflation which lead to the devaluation of Yen exchange
rate. Those criticizers say government note is a kind of marijuana that may
paralyze the whole economy at the end.
At this moment, Prime Minister Taro Asou is one of the person who oppose
to such idea among several key men in government and ruling blocs. But
it is possible that Prime Minister Tarou Asou may change his mind any
time for he will take any actions which seem to be feasible to overcome
his desperate political position at the moment.
I warn people of this country to watch carefully such political decision
will never happen in Japanese politics in next two months or so.
2009/2/7
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(617):
No more the act II of Koizumi theater
Junichiro Koizumi, who as prime minister was the driving force of the
privatization of the postal services system, criticized Prime Minister Tarou
Asou very severely on his recent remarks on the theme in recent days.
"Rather than get angry, I am flabbergasted to the extent that I want to laugh."
Koizumi told a meeting of Diet members who support his vision for deregulation.
"The most important factor in politics is a sense of trust," Koizumi said. "If
the words of the prime minister cannot be believed, we cannot fight in an
election.
Koizumi also took a swipe at Aso's economic stimulus program, which includes
2 trillion yen in cash handouts to households that are widely considered a
populist and ineffective gimmick. He even indicated the possibility the he
would not vote for the a two-thirds majority second vote in the Lower House,
where the ruling coalition has a decisive majority due to a Koizumi-led
victory by the LDP in the September 2005 Lower House election.
Needless to say, Koizumi's word was a big blow for Prime Minister Tarou Asou
and ruling parties. It became another big following wind for opposition front,
Democratic Party of Japan. They welcomed generally the criticism made by
Junichiro Koizumi. But some party members including top executives expressed
some concerns which may happen in coming general election. They are afraid that
the act II of Koizumi theater may happen again.
The act II of Koizumi theater will possibly happen when the House of
Representative is dissolved by Prime Minster Tarou Asou for the cash handout
bill was rejected due to the opposition of Junichiro Koizumi and his lawmakers
group at the House of Representatives in diet session expected in late March.
If this happened, LDP would virtually sprit into two group of party members,
namely, the one who still support Prime Minister Tarou Asou and the present
party executives and the other who do not support Prime Minister Tarou Asou.
It looks definitely good circumstances for opposition front DPJ at a first
glance. But it may be so, or may be not. Some DPJ members are afraid that
the act II of Koizumi Theater would happen in that case.
DPJ experienced such a big defeat in general election in September 2005.
The then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi dissolved the diet just to make
one simple question:" Do you agree with privatization of postal service
system or do not agree?" There were a lot more important political issues
but the argument was centered around only on this point in the election.
Junichiro Koizumi won the big victory in the election as a result. This was
the act I of Koizumi theater.
The act II of Koizumi theater may continue to play again. Because of the
reason why the diet is dissolved, the interest will be centered around to
choose Prime Minister Tarou Asou or to choose anti Asou group led by
Junichiro Koizumi. The interest will not be focused on the selection of
two major parties but on the friction of ruling Liberal Democratic Party
of Japan. Mass media will report a lot more about such friction of LDP
leaving the fight between two major parties in Japan.
This is the worry which some DPJ members have at the present. But I think
there is no rational ground and reason for such worry. I think they are too
sensitive as a matter of fact on this point. I believe a lot more people
now know the fact that they were deceived by the trick of Junichiro Koizumi
in the last election. They must have learned a lot more about such
unreasonable trick of act called Koizumi theater although there still
exists some people who still support Junichiro Koizumi.
DPJ should forget about all such movements going on on the side of LDP and
pay all possible attention on appealing their manifests for coming election
to materialize the change of power. That is, I believe the only way to
improve political status quo in this counrty at the moment.
2009/2/14
Tadashi HAYASE
My opinion of this week(618):
Distrust against Liberal Democratic Party
Support rate against Asou Cabinet continued to go down in several researches
made by mass media. Some show the rate became even less than 10%. It is a
big problem that Prime Minister Tarou Asou seems not to care so much about
low support rate. He just keeps saying his most important duty is to conduct
several economic policies to improve present economic recession.
He really lacks a sense of crisis under current political, economic and
social status in this country. It is sure that all he has to do now is to
dissolve the House of Representative and to make general election to establish
political leadership supported by the majority of people. He cannot do it by
himself, and his party, Liberal Democratic Party tries to stop him to do it.
The problem is now more with the party. The real problem is that ruling LDP
party itself is now in lame duck status. Needless to say, Prime Minister
Tarou Asou is mainly responsible for the low support rate for his cabinet.
But at the same time, ruling LDP party itself intensifies it. There exists
too many disunity inside of the party.
The most serious problem is that several young and other some lawmakers
in the party started insisting replacement of Tarou Asou from his position.
It is only five months ago when the party elected Tarou Asou to the President
of the party and Prime Minister of Japan. But those anti Asou groups
insist that they cannot win in coming general election under Asou leadership.
They say Asou should not dissolve the House of Representative until they
select a new face who replace unpopular Tarou Asou. They really don't care
about policies but care only about election for themselves. All of those
lawmakers casted affirmative votes for several laws and budget plans
including notorious cash handout plan submitted by ruling parties. They are
surely responsible for low support rate for Asou Cabinet in every sense of
words.
From this point of views, I appreciate the conduct of Yoshimi Watanabe
who left LDP for he did not agree with the policies of Asou Cabinet. I also
appreciate Junichiro Koizumi who expressed not vote for cash handout plan
when the plan is to be re-voted at the House of Representative some time
in near future. Their assertions and conducts are reasonable as state men.
It seems that those anti-Asou group of lawmakers do not understand the
reason why the party continues to loose support rate these days. They
really don't recognize the fact that some of those of their unreasonable
conducts intensify low support rate for Asou Cabinet. The support rate for
LDP were higher in Abe and Fukuda cabinets. The support rate for LDP is
now lower than that of Democratic Party of Japan in several research
these days. Why is this? Because the conducts of LDP itself rather than
their top leaders are responsible for it.
Not only Asou Cabinet, but also LDP itself is now in lame duck status
from any point of views. The only way to change this situation is for
Tarou Asou , the President of LDP and Prime Minister of Japan is to
dissolve the House of Representative and make general election soon after
the budget for 2009 has passed at the diet in late March regardless the
opposition inside of the party. It is the only way for Tarou Assou to
keep his face and dignity as Prime Minister of Japan.
2009/2/21
Tadashi HAYASE
My@opinion of this week(619)
Long range vision on the defense
On February 27th,@Ichiro@Ozawa,@Representative of Democratic Party of
Japan expressed his opinion on Japanese defense issue at a news conference.
He said:"US Seventh Fleet is good enough For the defense for Asian area
and for Japan." His comment caused a big controversy among political world
especially from ruling parties.
That provided a good attacking materials for ruling fronts that are facing
a big upwind toward Asou Cabinet in various phases of politics. A number of
key lawmakers of ruling parties made critical comments pointing out Ozawa's
statement does not make sense under the current defense situation in Japan.
Yomiuri News Paper criticized Ozawa's comment in the editorial on 28th of
February demanding DPJ should show their total views on defense policy of
Japan as a political party which is supposed to replace ruling Liberal
Democratic Party in next election.
Ozawa's statement surely seems to be very controversial from various point of
views. A lot of concerns were heard from inside and outside of DPJ because
that created various worries about basic defense issues of Japan. The most
typical reaction is the expression of worry about missile attack from North
Korea. What could Japan do if that had happened?
Facing to such big reaction from inside and outside of the party, Ozawa
started saying some excuses and explanation about what he really meant to
say by that. He said:" All I wanted to say by that is very clear. It is
necessary for this country to establish equal relationship with US. Our
defense relies too much on US . Japanese people should have more concerns
about defense issue by our own hands. That is all what I really wanted to
say."
I totally agree with Ozawa's stance on the defense issue. His comments
created some problems for opposition fronts . But as a matter of fact
that provided another important issue of policies for coming general
election. Ozawa should explain more clearly and concretely what he really
meant to say by that for people of Japan.
He did not talk only about the current defense situation in Asia. He seemed
to try to explain what would happen in Asia in the long run. The presence
of US army force is still necessary but Japan as an independent country
should play more independent role as far as defense issues are concerned.
The biggest factor for defense issue is China rather than North Korea.
The stable and peaceful relation with China is the most important for
defense issue in Asian area for any Asian countries and US.
Obama America is surely changing their defense policies in the world
including Asia. They will pay more interest in keeping good relation
with China while keeping a good relation with Japan. Japan is the same
way.
Long range defense policies in Japan are surely to be reconsidered from
various points of views. It is expected some arguments may start practical
steps for disarmament in Asian area as well as in all other parts of the
world rather than expansion of armament. Obama America may move to this
direction while Japan is just sticking to the present conventional US
military presence at the moment.
Ozawa's statement concerning US 7th Fleet is not necessary a mistake but
a good start to debate a long range defense issue for Japan. This is the
issue of Article 9 of the constitution of Japan as well. We all Japanese are
still very indecisive about defense issue in this country. No other people
in the world are not like Japanese.
Japan will not be able to continue to rely so much on defense issue on US.
We are now paying so much money on this any way for US. We must now think
our selves what cost is necessary and appropriate to defend this country at
the present and the future. We must reconsider our basic concept and policy
to defend our country in the long run.
This is the basic issue about Ozawa's controversial statement at this time.
2009/2/28
Tadashi HAYASE
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