My opinion this week(145):

Y2K problems:
 
 It is now less than 1000 hours before the new century starts. Then major
topics at this time is concentrated on the so-called Y2K problem. Every
people in charge of computer systems of any business firms, central and 
local governments are busy preparing for what may happen at the moment of
the transition to the new century. Those people are attending to their offices
although it is holiday. The government announced the need to stock some
abundant foods preparing for possible emergent cases. Mass media are
reporting a number of cases as such everyday.

  Well, it is quite right that all possible actions are going to be taken
preparing for any possible accidents. The proverb says: "Forewarned is 
forearmed." But very objectively speaking, it seems that all worry too
much. Another proverb says:" Once bitten twice shy". 

  It is quite understood that some serious confusion may happen in such
network society as US. It is also understood that some failures may happen
on some of those equipments which install old microprocessors. However,
it is strange to see that some of those business firms, PC or some other
office computers of which are not connected at all with any other outside
computers are worrying about some serious troubles. In many of those
computers are even powered off at that moment, midnight of the holiday.
How could some accidents happen? What a funny phenomenon it is!

  As a matter of fact. this issue provided a good opportunity to let every 
business executives and top management of government offices who usually
have no interest on any issues on computers think about such technical issues.
 
  The problem is that some happy and merrymaking mood of thet turn of the
century have been blew off by this Y2K issues. Well, it is our sincere hope
that all people in this globe will be able to meet the New Year dreaming a 
big hope and happiness blowing off many of stagnant mood of old century. 

  I want to listen to hear some of the opinions and comments on these issues
from many people in various positions. I made a bet with my friend who is
in a computer system work and keeps crying possible seriousness of the 
issues. Nothing so serious accidents will happen in Japan and worldwide,
according to my prediction.

  Fortunately and/or unfortunately, all people stock enough foods at this
holiday season. No worry about that. There is, however, one serious concern
for us. A missile could fly from a country in the East by mistake. 

1999/12/4
Tadashi HAYASE

My opinion this week(146):

Reconstruction of Japanese agriculture

  The ministerial declaration of WTO being held in Seattle have been postponed
for another one year later. This irregular happenings is the result of the
dispute between Japan, almost most participating countries and US  on Anti-
dumping issues and the dispute between Japan/EU and US on further liberalization
of agricultural products. Japan was asserting multifunctional character of
agriculture together with EU countries but that was not agreed by US. It was
about to conclude that some environmental and non-trade phase of agriculture
was stressed in the declaration as a compromise measure. But it is reported
that EU resumed to request to put this term, multifunctional phase of agricul-
uture and US did not agree with that at all.

　Agriculture in Japan and in EU countries are quite different from those 
in US and Australia, the land of which are huge and the agriculture in 
those countries are mechanized to a great extent.　Their productivity is much
higher than those of Japan and EU countries. The agriculture in Japan and EU
countries are entirely different from those mechanized agriculture. They are
more closely related with life environment, some phase of protection of 
environment, and even views itself. The cost of products is higher but that
is not all what they worry about. This multifunctional  phase of agriculture
is the basis of argument against US that requests  further liberalization of 
agriculture products.

　In Japan, farmers make rice fields even at the very foot of mountains.
It is true that help to protect the field from flood. It seems that this sort
of explanation of multifunctional phase of agriculture have some power of 
persuasion. On the other hand, Japanese consumers are forced to buy very 
expensive domestic rice compared with US made rice,  the quality of which
is very good as well. It is definitely true that Japanese consumer will 
receive benefit very much by further liberalization of rice import.

  The self supply rate of agricultural foods in Japan is less than 30% right
now and this is another or even major reason why Japan should be against 
further liberalization of agriculture products. It is the issue of foods 
securities. Under the current international environments, any countries should
be prepared for securing foods for their people within their own countries. 
There is no guarantee for Japan that enough foods will be supplied in any
emergent cases. It is necessary for Japan to establish a structure of self 
foods supply for their people.

　The argument of multifunctional phase of agriculture and environments are
just a principle one. The most critical point is the issue of food securities.
Japan is talking about this, of course, but is not necessarily showing this
at very front stage of negotiation. But it is actually the most important 
points of all why Japan cannot agree so easily with further liberalization of
agriculture products. It is necessary for Japan to make time in order to 
attain a certain level of self foods by making a lot of arguments which are
being made at the moment.

  It is now the time for Japanese agriculture to start reconstructing. The
current status of Japanese agriculture is the result of poor agricultural
policies which have been conducted in the post war period. I will not discuss
this issue in detail at the moment. But facing to the failure of WTO meeting,
the time is given to prepare a kind of more basic grand design to reconstruct
Japanese agriculture in question. This must , of course, be a part of 
restructuring of total economy which is being discussed  right now.

1999/12/11
Tadashi HAYASE

My opinion this week(147):

A leadership of statesman

  The growth rate of GDP in the third quarter became minus, and some more
concern over the recovery trend of economy has been questioned again in
one way or the other. In order to make the recovery trend sure, some more
government spending including public investment were included in the 
supplementary budget. Those spending are naturally financed by issuing
government bonds. The total amount of financial debts of central and local
government reached to almost 600 trillion yen now. The debts per capita of
this country counts now 7 million yen. What an amazing numbers it is!
 
  I am not going to talk about it in detail at this time. What I want to
talk about today is the comment mentioned by Mr. Ryutarou Hashimoto, the 
former Prime Minister of Japan at one of TV news shows recently. 

  Mr.Hashimoto appeared on Fuji TV news show in the morning of December 11th.
The modulator of the show asked him a question. "Mr.Hashimoto, you as the
former Prime Minister, started to take finance reform lines facing country's
serious financial debt situation. But your successor, Obuchi Cabinet has
changed this lines drastically issuing lots more red bonds focusing every
economic policy to recover the stagnant economy. The financial situation
of the country has been worsened as a result? What are your views on this?"

  Mr.Hashimoto's answer to this question was something like this. "Well, The
government cannot help doing anything, for that was the choice of the people."
In a word, he said that his cabinet had lost power due to the defeat in the 
last Upper House election loosing the support for finance recovery lines. It 
is sure that he still believes the rightness of such financial recovery lines
at that time. The reason for the defeat in the election was not necessarily
concerned with such lines but more with many other tyrannical acts and behaviors of
the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in those days. 

  Mr. Kenichi Takemura, another guests attendants at the show mentioned a 
kind of critical comment against Mr. Hashimoto's statement. "The people cannot
understand all that kind of difficult financial issue of the country. It is
you, politicians' responsibility to explain briefly the key points of such
difficult issues."  I agree with Mr.Takemura. 

  Mr.Hashimoto's statement sounds a little irresponsible and passive, although
he did not intend to be so. As a statesman in such high position, he should 
appeal what he believes right as a national policy, which the then cabinet was
trying to execute. That is to be the leadership of the Prime Minister. How can
he say that he could not attain the purpose because of the choice of the 
people was different?

  Needless to say, we understand that Obuchi government, the successor of
Hashimoto Cabinet is taking somewhat entirely different lines of economic
policy and that Mr. Hashimoto was not in a position to criticize that. But
what he should do is to appeal the necessity of coming back to financial
recovery lines as soon as possible after attaining the present economic
recovery lines. He should insist definitely the need to recovery financial
difficulty and even advice Obuchi Cabinet on this showing such stance to
the people of Japan. 

  That is the attitude he should take and that is what we call the leadership
of a statesman who play an important role to navigate the future of this
country.

1999/12/18
Tadashi HAYASE

My opinion this week(148)

Contempt of court
　
　There were so many events happened in this year. I kept writing one message
by one theme in a week as "My opinion this week". I had no problem to select
one specific topic in every weeks. I rather had so many alternatives among
so many happenings. To sum up the writing of this year, I wish I could select
a certain pleasant topics to talk about. But I obliged to select to write 
this topics happened last week that is not any good one at all.  

　I do not intend to talk about the event in detail. Osaka Gov.Yokoyama was
ordered by a court last Monday to pay 11 million yen in damages to a 21-year-
old woman who was suing him for sexual harassment and seeking 15 million yen.

  When this law suit was made , all people were surprised to see the reaction
taken by the governor. Throughout the litigation, the governor and his 
lawyers refused either to confirm or deny he had sexually harassed the woman
and avoid to make any dispute in the court. The reason is that he is busy 
enough to accomplish a number of his public works. As a result, the court 
concluded that her claim was valid. 

  Without going to the court, the governor called her a liar outside the
courtroom. Based on this unreasonable behavior of the governor, Judge 
Keisuke Hayashi of the Osaka District Court ruled that Yokoyama's sexual
harassment against the woman was persistent and evil. He may have 
premeditated the action, the judge said, ordering the governor to pay 2 
million yen for the act of harassment itself.

  Both side decided not to appeal the case to the upper court. The comment
made by the governor was very typical one that issued by politicians whenever
such scandals happened. "I would take the decision seriously and obey to it
by doing best my public works to recover trust of people to myself." What 
an impudent attitude is it without disputing any facts at the court !

   Such decision by the court was easily anticipated and I have no objection
to the decision itself. I was just surprised to see the attitude of the
governor that he would not dispute anything at all at the court. That means
he admitted the crime itself as far as any people see the case. On the other
hand, he called the girl a liar outside of the court. What a complete 
disregards for the law!

  Is it a way that such a public official as governor think how to handle
the situation? There is no objection on the court decision, but if I were 
the judge, I might have sum up the last paragraph of the sentence in this
 way.

  " The behavior of the defendant should be blamed for open disregard of 
law. This court severely denounces the defendant for his acts in this case."

  Unfortunately, there were so many other cases in this year which were
driven from the lack of legality in this country and this case was the most
typical one of all.  Mr. Yokoyama was finally impeached for his criminal act
itself and he had to resign the governor.

  It was such an unpleasant event but we should appreciate the fact that
justice of law is surely defended by the court and public prosecutor's 
office.

1999/12/25
Tadashi HAYASE